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STELLAR · L1 · STAGE 1 ACKNOWLEDGED · QRI 22 v3.2.2 methodology
In plain terms

What it is. Stellar is a payments network that has been running since 2015, is steered by one foundation, and carries dollar-backed tokens placed on it directly by their issuer rather than bridged in from another network.

What we found. None of the protection has been built yet: the wallet software the foundation maintains carries no trace of the work, the outside team that had been building Stellar's quantum-safe tooling has wound down and taken its services offline, and nobody has decided what happens to accounts left untouched for years whose owners cannot be reached.

Why it matters. Nothing here protects anyone yet, and the gap is widest for the newer part of Stellar: the foundation says the tools it added for apps that prove a fact without revealing the data behind it are not covered by the plan at all, and it knows of nothing fast enough to replace them.

Stellar mainnet runs Protocol 27 and authorizes every transaction under Ed25519 per RFC 8032, where a G-address is a base32 encoding of the raw 32-byte Ed25519 public key rather than a hash, so every funded account publishes its verifying key at creation. Post-quantum work exists only as the roadmap SDF published on 2026-06-09 and Draft CAP-0087, which specifies ML-DSA-44/65/87 verification per FIPS 204 as Soroban host functions with Implementation TBD and min_supported_protocol 29 against a mainnet at 27, states that it does not change the network's Ed25519 transaction signature scheme, and has no merged code and no testnet presence: authenticated code search returned zero ML-DSA hits in stellar-core and rs-soroban-env on 2026-08-20 against an Ed25519 control of 94 hits, the XDR declaration typedef opaque Signature<64> caps a classic signature at 64 bytes so no 2420-byte ML-DSA-44 signature fits a classic signer slot without a wire-format change, and the mainnet-traffic cap binds at 5a = 0% with Gate 1a-Sig and Gate 1a-KEM both failing.

inLinkedIn ↷Audit access ⇆Compare Last reviewed 2026-08-20

Summary

SDF’s Quantum Preparedness Plan (2026-06-09) sets three stages. Stage 1, targeted 2026, adds ML-DSA-44 and ML-DSA-65 verification to Soroban as native host functions, filed as CAP-0087 (Draft, created 2026-06-05). Stage 2, targeted 2027, would let any existing G-account add a quantum-safe signer beside its Ed25519 signer through set_options with no address change. Stage 3 puts readiness work in 2027 and leaves the Ed25519 cut-off ledger undated. Ten weeks after publication no stage has produced merged code or an assigned protocol version, and Protocol 28 Adapter (mainnet vote 2026-09-16) carries CAP-0083/0085/0086 only. Overlay peer authentication uses ephemeral Curve25519 ECDH with HKDF and HMAC-SHA256 session keys, RPC uses classical TLS, and no hybrid PQ KEM is documented at any layer. Post-quantum verification on Stellar runs only in third-party application code: an unaudited Falcon-512 contract on mainnet, per the NIST Round-3 submission and explicitly not FN-DSA, deployed 2026-06-11 with one verify call, and a testnet custom account authorized by guest-side ML-DSA-65 at 77,519,116 instructions per verification, both inside Ed25519-signed envelopes. QRI 22, Band 3 Planning, Migration Stage 1 Acknowledged.

Dominant quantum risk

Forge. Forge-dominant: this chain secures value and operations with signatures, so the principal quantum risk is forgery of spends and attestations once Shor breaks the curve. There is no harvest-now component for forgery, the public key alone enables it, and on Stellar the public key is the address. Decrypt/HNDL applies only to transport and RPC confidentiality.

Forge subtotal 12 / Decrypt subtotal 6
Announced → Shipped

4 announced → 0 shipped on mainnet under a named primitive. >1.5 deduction applied in 5e; shipped = 0 makes the ratio unbounded, recorded at the 2.0 threshold per the n-announced / 0-shipped convention, so the >2.0 QRI cap 65 and the >5.0 narrative-only tag do not apply. Announced counted as distinct forward-dated primitive-level or subsystem-level claims by SDF in the trailing 12 months: ML-DSA-44/65 Soroban host-function verification (Quantum Preparedness Plan Stage 1, 2026 target), ML-DSA-87 added in CAP-0087 (Draft), quantum-safe signer types on classic accounts (Stage 2, 2027 target, primitive unnamed), and a protocol upgrade to SCP for network integrity (Quantum Preparedness Plan, undated, primitive unnamed). Shipped counted on the rubric's strict basis, mainnet bytes signed under the named primitive by the protocol: none. The third-party Falcon-512 contract is not an SDF claim and is not counted on either side. Announcements are future-tense throughout and CAP-0087 states it does not change the network's Ed25519 transaction signature scheme; no narrative-only tag.

LayerQu scores deployment, not announcements. Announcements score zero.

What the gates say

  • Gate 1a, Hybrid signature: FAIL , no documented hybrid signature composition for Stellar accounts or SCP. The Quantum Preparedness Plan's Stage 2 states every existing G-account can add a quantum-safe signer alongside its Ed25519 signer through set_options with no address change, which is a weighted-threshold arrangement rather than a specified combiner; no CAP is filed for it, and no combiner construction, SUF-CMA analysis, or commit-to-hash construction is published. CAP-0087 states in its Motivation that it deliberately covers contract-level signature verification only and does not change the transaction signature scheme of the Stellar network, which remains Ed25519
  • Gate 1a, Hybrid KEM: FAIL , stellar-core overlay peer authentication, per src/overlay/PeerAuth.h, uses ephemeral Curve25519 ECDH with HKDF_extract/HKDF_expand derivation and HmacSha256Key session MAC keys; Horizon and Stellar RPC use classical TLS; no hybrid PQ KEM such as X25519+ML-KEM-768 is documented at any layer
  • Gate 1b, Commit-to-hash: COND , no OR-composition declared; Stage 2's signer-alongside-Ed25519 model is the arrangement that would require commit-to-hash documentation if it ships as 1-of-2 authorization
  • Gate 2, Evidence reconstruction: PASS , every sub-score reconstructible from public artifacts in 48 hours. Independently verifiable, with no authentication and no cost: CAP-0087 preamble status and byte tables, the CAP registry status of every cited CAP, the live MainNet protocol version via the Horizon root resource, the absence of ML-DSA and dilithium in both reference repositories via authenticated code search with an Ed25519 positive control, the MainNet Falcon verify transaction and the TestNet ML-DSA custom-account transaction via public Horizon queries, and the Stellar XDR signer, memo and signature type definitions
  • Gate 3, Primitive naming: PASS , Ed25519 per RFC 8032, ECDSA secp256k1, ECDSA secp256r1, BLS12-381, BN254, Poseidon/Poseidon2, SHA-256, SHA-3/SHAKE, Curve25519 ECDH, HKDF, HMAC-SHA256, ML-DSA-44/65/87 per FIPS 204, Falcon-512 per the NIST Round-3 submission, SCP all named with mechanism and status

Burn-vs-rescue policy on file

Declared option f, Undeclared. SDF has not declared a policy. The Quantum Preparedness Plan (2026-06-09) states Stellar has a large population of dormant accounts whose holders are unreachable, that any forced cutoff requires freezing these accounts, and that the choice is between providing a recovery mechanism, for which it names seed-based proofs as the available option, or accepting that those accounts become permanently locked. The plan explicitly defers the decision to community design discussion; none of freeze/burn, proof-of-preimage rescue, hybrid client-layer, rate-limit canary, or optional migration has been chosen.

Seven dimensions

Each dimension scores 0–100 internally; the weighted roll-up produces the QRI.

1 Cryptographic Exposure weight 15% 27 / 100
1a · primitive inventory 14 / 20

Inventory fully public and reconstructible, including the transport layer named from stellar-core source (Curve25519 ECDH, HKDF, HMAC-SHA256). The XDR type definitions bound the classic-account surface precisely: the PublicKey union carries exactly one case, PUBLIC_KEY_TYPE_ED25519 over a uint256, and SignerKeyType carries four cases, all classical. CAP-0087 (Draft) enumerates the complete Soroban signature host-function surface and names ML-DSA-44/65/87 per FIPS 204 with exact verifying-key and signature byte sizes as the proposed first PQ addition; nothing PQ is merged or activated. The deployed protocol surface is unchanged since the Protocol 26 ZK BN254 host functions.

Primitives: Ed25519 (RFC 8032; classic-account and transaction signature scheme; SIGNER_KEY_TYPE_ED25519 and the sole case of the XDR PublicKey union; Rust ed25519-dalek verification enabled at the Protocol 24 boundary per stellar-core src/crypto/SecretKey.h) · Ed25519 Signed Payload Signer (SIGNER_KEY_TYPE_ED25519_SIGNED_PAYLOAD, CAP-0040, Final, Protocol 19) · Hash(x) signer (SIGNER_KEY_TYPE_HASH_X, 256-bit preimage reveal) · Pre-authorized-transaction signer (SIGNER_KEY_TYPE_PRE_AUTH_TX, SHA-256 hash of a TransactionSignaturePayload) · SHA-256 (transaction and ledger hashing, quorum-set hashing, pre-auth and Hash(x) signer digests) · SCP federated voting (per-validator Ed25519 signatures over message envelopes; the Quantum Preparedness Plan states SCP messages are authenticated with Ed25519 signatures by validators; not signature aggregation) · Curve25519 ECDH + HKDF_extract/HKDF_expand + HMAC-SHA256 (stellar-core overlay peer authentication, ephemeral per session, src/overlay/PeerAuth.h) · ECDSA secp256k1 public-key recovery (recover_key_ecdsa_secp256k1, Soroban host function, CAP-0046-03, Final, Protocol 20; k256 crate in soroban-env-host) · ECDSA secp256r1 verification (verify_sig_ecdsa_secp256r1, CAP-0051, Final, Protocol 21; p256 crate in soroban-env-host) · BLS12-381 G1/G2 arithmetic, hash-to-curve, MSM, Fr field ops and multi-pairing-check (CAP-0059, Final, Protocol 22; 16 host functions; ark-bls12-381 crate) · BN254 G1/G2 and multi-pairing-check (CAP-0074, Final, Protocol 25 X-Ray) plus efficient ZK BN254 host functions (CAP-0080, Implemented, Protocol 26; ark-bn254 crate) · Poseidon / Poseidon2 permutation host functions (CAP-0075, Final, Protocol 25 X-Ray) · ML-DSA-44/65/87 per FIPS 204 (CAP-0087, Draft, created 2026-06-05; proposed Soroban host-function verification only; Implementation TBD; Protocol version TBD in the registry, min_supported_protocol 29 in the host-function entries; not merged) · Falcon-512 per the NIST Round-3 submission, explicitly not FN-DSA (third-party Soroban verifier contract on MainNet since 2026-06-11, unaudited, application-layer, vendor winding down)
1b · shor grover pq tag 5 / 20

Every deployed protocol-level and account-level primitive is Shor-vulnerable or Grover-weakened. The Quantum Preparedness Plan states the same conclusion for both threat classes it identifies: Shor's algorithm can derive the private key for any Ed25519 public key, and the pairing-based ZK protocols built on BN254 and BLS12-381 break for the same reason. The two PQ-safe lattice entries are a Draft proposal and a third-party application contract respectively, neither in the consensus or classic-account path.

Tags:
  • Ed25519 → Shor-break-via-DL-without-pairings
  • ECDSA secp256k1 → Shor-break-via-DL-without-pairings
  • ECDSA secp256r1 → Shor-break-via-DL-without-pairings
  • Curve25519 ECDH (overlay transport) → Shor-break-via-DL-without-pairings (Decrypt class)
  • BLS12-381 (G1/G2 + multi-pairing-check) → Shor-break-via-pairings
  • BN254 → Shor-break-via-pairings
  • SHA-256 → Grover-weaken (256→128-bit)
  • HMAC-SHA256 / HKDF → Grover-weaken (symmetric, 256→128-bit)
  • Poseidon / Poseidon2 → research-grade arithmetic-circuit-friendly hash, Grover-weaken (cryptanalytic tier 4)
  • ML-DSA-44/65/87 (CAP-0087 Draft, not deployed) → PQ-safe lattice with confidence discount, proposal only
  • Falcon-512 (third-party Soroban contract, application-layer) → PQ-safe lattice with confidence discount, not consensus, unaudited
1c · family diversity 0 / 20

Zero PQ-safe families deployed. Classical-only across Edwards-curve EdDSA, Weierstrass-curve ECDSA, pairing-friendly curves, SHA-2 and arithmetic-friendly hashes. The proposed path is lattice-only (ML-DSA per CAP-0087) and the third-party Falcon-512 contract is the same lattice family. SLH-DSA (hash-based, FIPS 205) is placed second in the priority order stated by the CAP author in the protocol discussion on 2026-05-13, and the Quantum Preparedness Plan says additional schemes will be added over time, but no SLH-DSA CAP is filed, so no second family is in scope.

1d · nist security category 3 / 20

Ed25519 / secp256k1 / secp256r1 ≈ 128-bit classical / 0-bit post-Shor. BLS12-381 ≈ 120 to 128-bit classical / 0-bit post-Shor. BN254 ≈ ~100-bit classical (post-2017 ex-TNFS) / 0-bit post-Shor. SHA-256 ≈ 128-bit post-Grover. CAP-0087 (Draft) maps its proposed primitives to NIST categories exactly, matching NIST IR 8547 Table 3: ML-DSA-44 category 2 (1312-byte verifying key, 2420-byte signature), ML-DSA-65 category 3 (1952 / 3309), ML-DSA-87 category 5 (2592 / 4627). The third-party Falcon-512 contract targets NIST Level I per the Falcon Round-3 specification. No NIST-PQC-categorized primitive is deployed at protocol level.

1e · implementation quality 5 / 20

Ed25519 and ECDSA secp256k1/secp256r1 in the reference stack use standard, widely reviewed libraries: ed25519-dalek 2.0.0, k256 0.13.3 and p256 0.13.2 in soroban-env-host, with ark-bls12-381 0.5.0 and ark-bn254 0.5.0 for the pairing host functions, plus sha2, sha3, hmac and curve25519-dalek. Rust ed25519-dalek verification is enabled at the Protocol 24 boundary in stellar-core and cannot be disabled once enabled. All deployed schemes are stateless. Cryptanalytic tier 1 for Ed25519 / SHA-2 / ECDSA-secp256r1; tier 1 to 2 for BLS12-381; tier 4 for Poseidon. Deployed-verifier provenance for PQ is 0: the only deployed PQ verifier is the third-party Falcon-512 contract, self-described as not audited, whose vendor states it is winding down; the community TestNet ML-DSA path is guest-side WASM with no published audit. CAP-0087's own Security Concerns section states that the host functions would wrap an external library, that several candidates are being evaluated, and that most ML-DSA implementations are early, immature and lack auditing or formal verification. An SDF engineer deprioritized Falcon host functions citing floating-point operations that are architecture dependent and therefore a determinism risk, a sound implementation-quality concern recorded before any code exists. LayerQu did not corroborate a machine-checked SCP safety proof this run and makes no such claim.

2 Quantum Recovery Exposure weight 10% 18 / 100
Forge subtotal: 12/75 Decrypt subtotal: 6/25
2a · active key exposure 5 / 25

Stellar account IDs are Ed25519 public keys directly: the G-prefixed strkey is a base32 encoding of the raw 32-byte Ed25519 public key with a version byte and CRC16 (STRKEY_PUBKEY_ED25519 = 6 maps to 'G' in stellar-core src/crypto/StrKey.h), not a hash. The Quantum Preparedness Plan states the same in SDF's own words: account addresses directly encode the Ed25519 public key, which means every account address on the network is a target, including dormant accounts that have never authorized a transaction. The master key's weight can be set to 0 and additional signers added through set_options, but every available signer type is itself an Ed25519 key or a SHA-256 digest recorded in the ledger, so rotation does not remove the exposed verifying key from public view. CRQC-Shor-forgery applies to 100% of active accounts.

2b · cold key exposure 3 / 25

There is no hash-address regime on Stellar: the address is the verifying key, so a dormant account's Ed25519 public key is public without any spend ever occurring. The MainNet network passphrase, 'Public Global Stellar Network; September 2015', dates the ledger to 2015, so a decade of dormant XLM is fully pubkey-exposed. The Quantum Preparedness Plan acknowledges a large population of dormant accounts whose holders are unreachable, states any forced cutoff requires freezing them, and defers the handling mechanism to community design discussion.

2c · sig long term validity 4 / 25

Every historical Ed25519 transaction signature is Shor-forgeable post-CRQC. Light-client schemes verify SCP messages through the Tier-1 quorum, relying on Ed25519 validator signatures over SHA-256 message hashes, so a CRQC adversary can forge historical SCP nominate/prepare/commit messages. The Quantum Preparedness Plan names this explicitly as the network-integrity threat: an attacker who can forge enough validator signatures to control quorum intersection can compromise consensus itself. SDF's live quorum set comprises 21 validators across 7 organizations at threshold 5 (read 2026-08-20).

2d · encryption confidentiality hndl 6 / 25

Stellar overlay peer authentication (stellar-core src/overlay/PeerAuth.h) uses ephemeral Curve25519 ECDH key agreement with HKDF_extract/HKDF_expand derivation and HmacSha256Key per-session send and receive MAC keys, with the long-lived node identity key being Ed25519; inbound RPC (Horizon, Stellar RPC) uses standard classical TLS. No hybrid PQ KEM such as X25519+ML-KEM-768 is documented at any layer, and the Quantum Preparedness Plan does not address transport confidentiality.

3 Metadata, Anonymity & Confidentiality weight 13% 23 / 100
3a · tx graph visibility 4 / 20

Fully transparent ledger with no confidential-transaction or shielded-pool CAP in Draft, Accepted, Implemented or Final status in the CAP registry. Payment memos commonly carry user identifiers, customer IDs or external-account references: the XDR MemoType enum defines MEMO_TEXT, MEMO_ID, MEMO_HASH and MEMO_RETURN, and the muxed-account scheme (CAP-0027 First-class multiplexed accounts, Final, Protocol 13; SEP-0023 Strkeys, Active) multiplexes many end-users behind one G-account. Regulated asset issuance is on-chain and attributable: USDC on Stellar is natively issued by Circle from the Ed25519 account GA5ZSEJYB37JRC5AVCIA5MOP4RHTM335X2KGX3IHOJAPP5RE34K4KZVN.

3b · rpc mempool concentration 6 / 20

Public Horizon and Stellar RPC access is concentrated among SDF-hosted Horizon plus commercial infrastructure providers and Tier-1 validator-operated endpoints. The fee-pool and surge-pricing model means transaction-queue ordering is observable to participating nodes. No protocol-level validator-metadata-retention policy is declared.

3c · cross chain bridge correlation 5 / 20

USDC on Stellar is natively issued by Circle and Circle issues the same asset natively on many other networks, so a passive observer can correlate Stellar source-of-funds against off-Stellar destinations without a bridge being involved. Anchor flows tie Stellar addresses to off-chain KYC by design: SEP-0006 (Deposit and Withdrawal API), SEP-0012 (KYC API), SEP-0024 (Hosted Deposit and Withdrawal) and SEP-0031 (Cross-Border Payments API) are all Active in the ecosystem registry. LayerQu did not complete a dedicated inventory of third-party bridge venues; that gap is recorded in source_disagreement rather than asserted as an absence.

3d · retroactive de anonymization 8 / 20

Stellar deploys no ZK-shielded transactions and no DL-based ring signatures at protocol level. Protocol 25 X-Ray (2026-01-22) added ZK building blocks (BN254 host functions via CAP-0074, Poseidon/Poseidon2 via CAP-0075) and Protocol 26 added efficient ZK BN254 host functions (CAP-0080, Implemented), but no shielded-pool feature has shipped. The production application ZK path is Groth16 over BLS12-381 (CAP-0059, Protocol 22), which is pairing-based and Shor-breakable, so any application-layer privacy built on it is retroactively breakable. The Quantum Preparedness Plan states that it does not yet address pairing-based zero-knowledge protocols built on Stellar and that there is no drop-in post-quantum replacement with comparable performance. The one community proposal for a hash-based FRI alternative (protocol discussion opened 2026-04-29) built a working BN254 FRI verifier and prover on the poseidon2_permutation host function but does not ship: production parameters exceed the per-transaction CPU budget by roughly two orders of magnitude, blocked on missing batching and aggregation primitives, with no further activity after 2026-05-02.

3e · mixnet shuffle 0 / 20

None at protocol level.

4 Migration Architecture weight 10% 63 / 100
4a · crypto agility 7 / 15

The classic-account key surface is an XDR union with room to grow but no growth to date: PublicKey carries exactly one case (PUBLIC_KEY_TYPE_ED25519) and SignerKeyType carries four, all classical, and the Stellar documentation states that Stellar uses the ed25519 signature scheme but there is also a mechanism for adding additional types of public and private key schemes. Two hard constraints bound how far that mechanism reaches today. First, the XDR signature field is 'typedef opaque Signature<64>', variable-length per its own comment but capped at 64 bytes, so a 2420-byte ML-DSA-44 or 3309-byte ML-DSA-65 signature cannot occupy a classic transaction signature slot without an XDR change, not merely a new SignerKey case. Second, adding a case requires a CAP and a validator-ratified protocol version. CAP-0051 (secp256r1) shows the Soroban host can add new signature primitives through a finite CAP path, and CAP-0087 (Draft) is the only filed CAP applying that path to a PQ primitive. Adjacent live and filed infrastructure a PQ signer composition could build on: CAP-0071 (Final, activated at Protocol 27) adds authentication delegation and address-bound Soroban credentials; CAP-0072 (Draft, no PQ content) would let a Soroban contract act as a signer on a classic G-account. The Soroban custom-account model already admits a PQ-authorized account with no protocol change, as a community TestNet custom account authorized solely by guest-side ML-DSA-65 demonstrated on 2026-08-19, at 77,519,116 instructions per verification, which the measuring author reports as 167 times Ed25519 net of the VM baseline and 24 times ECDSA secp256r1. There is still no in-protocol signature-scheme switch at the classic-account level.

4b · aa key rotation 10 / 20

Native weighted multisig with signer weights and low/medium/high operation thresholds in the 0 to 255 range, a master key whose weight can be set to 0, pre-authorized transactions, Hash(x) signers and Ed25519 Signed Payload Signers (CAP-0040). The Quantum Preparedness Plan confirms the live rotation property in SDF's own words: the G-address is a stable identifier and the keys that authorize transactions can be rotated through the existing set_options operation without changing the address. Soroban contracts can implement custom-account authorization through __check_auth, and CAP-0071 (Final, activated with Protocol 27, live on MainNet per the Horizon protocol-version check on 2026-08-20) generalizes Soroban authorization with delegated signatures and address-bound credentials. This is stronger than a single-key model but is not a general per-account programmable authorization module for classic G-accounts; CAP-0072, which would allow a contract to act as a G-account signer, is still Draft. Account-model component 10. The seed-rebind floor (6) applies to single-key Ed25519 accounts and is subsumed by the higher account-model score (MAX selects 10). PQ-rebind bonus is 0: no Stellar-specific seed-rebind design is published and none is deployed; the key-index wire-format idea raised in the protocol discussion is design commentary, and the roadmap's mention of seed-based proofs is an option named for the undecided dormant-account question, not a construction. Dim 2 Forge exposure unchanged. 10.

4c · hard fork track record 12 / 15

MainNet has advanced through numbered protocol versions to Protocol 27 (codename Zipper, activated 2026-07-08) since the network's September 2015 epoch, using an SCP-voted ledgerVersion bump coordinated by SDF. Recent activations are dated and documented: Protocol 25 X-Ray 2026-01-22, Protocol 26 Yardstick 2026-05-06, Protocol 27 Zipper 2026-07-08, giving a recent cadence of roughly two to three and a half months. Protocol 28 Adapter continues that cadence with published operational detail: stellar-core v28.0.0 released 2026-08-13, TestNet upgrade vote 2026-08-27 1700 UTC, validator arming deadline 2026-09-09 1700 UTC, MainNet upgrade vote 2026-09-16 1700 UTC, and 38 of 94 validating nodes already running Protocol-28-capable software a month ahead of the vote. The CAP governance taxonomy requires formal acceptance by a majority of validators before a CAP reaches Final, and no contested fork was found in the material reviewed. No primary source supports a claim that a specific upgrade was delayed rather than shipped with a known bug, so none is carried.

4d · hybrid deployment readiness 6 / 15

The Quantum Preparedness Plan (2026-06-09) documents a dual-stack path in specific terms: Stage 2 (2027 target) states every existing G-account can add a quantum-safe signer alongside its Ed25519 signer through set_options, with no new account type, no address change and no balance migration, and that wallets, SDKs, anchors and SEPs will be updated accordingly. Stage 1's ML-DSA-44/65 Soroban verification is filed as CAP-0087 (Draft). Against that: no CAP exists for Stage 2, no hybrid combiner (AND or OR composition) is specified, no SUF-CMA or commit-to-hash analysis is published, no protocol-level PQC is on testnet, and the 64-byte XDR signature bound means the classic-account wire format itself must change before any Stage 2 signer can carry an ML-DSA signature. Architecturally the weighted-threshold multi-signer model and the Soroban custom-account __check_auth path are natural dual-stack substrates, and a community TestNet custom account already authorizes under ML-DSA-65 while the envelope stays Ed25519-signed; the path is documented but unspecified in protocol terms.

4e · stateful hash state management 15 / 15

Stellar uses no stateful hash-based signature scheme. Default 15/15 per v3.1 rule for stateless schemes.

4f · bft aggregation path n/a, not in scope, weight redistributed

N/A. SCP uses per-validator Ed25519 signatures over message envelopes; SCP is Federated Byzantine Agreement built on quorum slices, not BLS aggregation at consensus. The BLS12-381 host functions added in CAP-0059 are exposed to Soroban smart contracts, not used in consensus. The Quantum Preparedness Plan states network integrity will be addressed through a protocol upgrade to SCP, but names no primitive, no CAP and no date. Not scored, so it is left out of the dimension total rather than counted as a zero.

5 Deployment Execution weight 22% 9 / 100
5a · mainnet pqc traffic pct 0 / 25

Mainnet PQC traffic % = 0%. CAP-0087 (Draft) has no merged implementation in stellar-core or rs-soroban-env: authenticated code search for ML-DSA and dilithium returns 0 results in both repositories, with an Ed25519 query on the same index returning 94 hits as a positive control (queried 2026-08-20). MainNet runs Protocol 27 while CAP-0087's host-function entries set min_supported_protocol 29, and the next scheduled upgrade (Protocol 28 Adapter, MainNet vote 2026-09-16) contains no cryptography CAP. One third-party, unaudited Falcon-512 verifier contract exists on MainNet (deployed 2026-06-11) with one recorded verify call confirmed by a no-auth Horizon query: transaction successful, ledger 62992420, closed 2026-06-12T06:17:17Z. That transaction envelope was itself Ed25519-signed and the contract is application-layer code, not protocol signing traffic, so it rounds to 0%.

5b · pqc code in consensus client 1 / 15

No PQ primitive code merged in stellar-core. The crypto subsystem covers Ed25519 and ECDSA, and soroban-env-host covers BLS12-381, BN254 and Poseidon. No liboqs import and no ML-DSA, Falcon or SLH-DSA branch identified. Reconfirmed 2026-08-20: CAP-0087 lists Implementation as TBD and final cost calibration parameters as TBD. A community TestNet measurement published 2026-08-19 reports guest-side ML-DSA-65 verification inside a Soroban contract at 77,519,116 instructions, 19.4% of tx_max_instructions and 13.4% of the per-ledger instruction budget per call against ledger_max_instructions of 580,000,000, versus 1.0% for the ECDSA secp256r1 host function and 0.5% for the Ed25519 host function; that is exactly the gap the CAP proposes to close with native host functions. The measurement is third-party WASM contract code, not client code, and carries no published audit.

5c · validator pqc key adoption 0 / 15

Zero of the 21 validators in SDF's live quorum set (7 organizations at threshold 5: SDF, Blockdaemon, OBSRVR, Franklin Templeton, LOBSTR, Creit Technologies, Public Node, three nodes each, read 2026-08-20) operate any PQC key. SCP validator keys are Ed25519, and the public network monitor exposes no PQC-relevant field because there is nothing PQ to observe at the validator layer.

5d · published dated milestones 0 / 10

VOIDED to 0 per v3.1 rule (5d voided when 5a = 0). SDF has now published dated milestones for the first time on this chain's record: Quantum Preparedness Plan Stage 1 targeted 2026 (ML-DSA-44/65 Soroban host functions, filed as Draft CAP-0087 with Protocol version TBD), Stage 2 targeted 2027 (quantum-safe signer types on classic accounts, no CAP filed), Stage 3 with readiness work stated complete in 2027 and the Ed25519 cut-off ledger undated. None is protocol-enforced. The Stage 1 2026 target has produced no merged code and no scheduled protocol version in the ten weeks since publication, while the one remaining 2026 upgrade on the calendar (Protocol 28, MainNet vote 2026-09-16) carries no PQC. With zero shipped mainnet PQC traffic the milestone credit is voided regardless. The 2026 target becomes the first entry in this chain's hit/slip/miss record.

5e · pqc washing delta 8 / 15

Announced PQC now exists: the Quantum Preparedness Plan (2026-06-09) and Draft CAP-0087 (2026-06-05) name ML-DSA-44/65/87 for future deployment, promise quantum-safe classic-account signer types, and promise a later SCP protocol upgrade for network integrity, while shipped SDF PQC bytes on mainnet remain 0, so the announced-to-shipped ratio exceeds the 1.5 deduction threshold (four announced claims, zero shipped, recorded at 2.0). Deduction applied, partly offset on the honesty side: the roadmap is future-tense throughout and states its own open problems (the undecided dormant-account mechanism, and that pairing-based ZK is not yet addressed), and CAP-0087 states explicitly that it does not change the network's Ed25519 transaction signature scheme. Independent press coverage dated 2026-06-09 also describes every stage in the future tense, though it contains no explicit statement that nothing is live on mainnet, so it corroborates framing rather than status. No narrative-only tag.

5f · signature footprint multiplier 0 / 20

No published PQ signature footprint or fee-accounting analysis from SDF. Ed25519 signatures are 64 bytes and the XDR field is capped at 64 bytes ('typedef opaque Signature<64>'). CAP-0087's own parameter table gives ML-DSA-44 2420-byte signatures (~38×), ML-DSA-65 3309-byte (~52×) and ML-DSA-87 4627-byte (~72×); the third-party Falcon-512 path is 666 bytes (~10×) per the Falcon Round-3 specification. CAP-0087 lists final calibration parameters as TBD and no transaction-weight recalibration is published; an SDF engineer's discussion proposal to store the verifying key on-ledger and send only the signature would limit per-transaction growth to the signature itself, but it is design commentary, not a spec. Per rubric (>38× or undisclosed = 0).

6 Supply Chain Vendor Readiness weight 22% 8 / 100
6a · wallet 2 / 25

Wallet tile reviewed across the SDF-maintained browser extension Freighter, the SDF-maintained TypeScript wallet SDK, and the JavaScript SDK. Authenticated code search for 'quantum' returns 0 results in all three repositories, and an ed25519 query against the same index returns hits in each, confirming the search is live rather than empty (queried 2026-08-20). No SDF-maintained wallet tooling contains any PQC-related code or reference, and no reviewed wallet has published a PQC roadmap for Stellar key types. LayerQu did not verify a usage ranking for Stellar wallets, so this tile is described by the surfaces reviewed, not by a claimed top-3 ordering.

6b · bridge 2 / 25

No bridge operator serving Stellar was found to have published a PQC roadmap. Cross-chain value movement for Stellar's largest asset runs through native multi-chain issuance rather than a single canonical bridge, and all bridge-class designs in this ecosystem rely on classical ECDSA, Ed25519 or BLS12-381 validator-set or guardian signatures. LayerQu did not complete a dedicated bridge-venue sweep; this tile records an untested gap rather than a confirmed vendor absence, and is scored at the floor accordingly.

6c · custodian 2 / 25

No custodian or exchange was found to have published a PQC roadmap covering Stellar key types. Custodial and exchange signing for Stellar assets is performed over classical Ed25519, since that is the only key type the protocol accepts. LayerQu did not complete a dedicated custodian and exchange sweep and does not assert specific custodian names, assets-under-custody figures or charter status; this tile records an untested gap rather than a confirmed vendor absence, and is scored at the floor accordingly.

6d · rpc hsm tee infra 2 / 25

RPC and infrastructure tile: SDF-hosted Stellar RPC and Horizon plus commercial providers. No PQC TLS (hybrid X25519+ML-KEM-768) is confirmed across the Stellar RPC fleet. The HSM stack is generic and no TEE attestation chain is declared as part of the Stellar validator stack. The one third-party PQC tooling vendor active on Stellar in 2026, and a named consultee on CAP-0087, states on its own site that the project is winding down, is no longer developed or maintained, and that all services are offline, so no active PQC-specialist vendor remains in the Stellar supply chain.

7 Governance & Coordination weight 8% 42 / 100
7a · validator stake distribution 6 / 20

SDF's live quorum set, read 2026-08-20, contains 21 validators across 7 organizations at threshold 5: SDF, Blockdaemon, OBSRVR, Franklin Templeton, LOBSTR, Creit Technologies and Public Node, three nodes each. Threshold 5 of 7 means consensus halts for this quorum set if 3 of the 7 organizations go dark. The wider public network on the same reading shows 406 known nodes, 216 active, 94 validating and 70 full validators across 14 distinct organizations, so the operator set beyond the quorum set is broader, but SCP quorum weight remains concentrated in the Tier-1 set. Concentration is structural to Federated Byzantine Agreement. Client diversity: stellar-core dominant.

7b · upgrade cadence under pressure 14 / 20

SDF coordinates a validator vote on each protocol bump through stellar-core's ledgerVersion, and the recent record is dated and clean: Protocol 25 X-Ray activated on MainNet 2026-01-22, Protocol 26 Yardstick 2026-05-06, Protocol 27 Zipper 2026-07-08, a recent cadence of roughly two to three and a half months. Protocol 28 Adapter carries published operational dates (stellar-core v28.0.0 released 2026-08-13, TestNet vote 2026-08-27 1700 UTC, arming deadline 2026-09-09 1700 UTC, MainNet vote 2026-09-16 1700 UTC), and 38 of 94 validating nodes were already running Protocol-28-capable core software on 2026-08-20, a month ahead of the vote. The CAP process requires formal acceptance by a majority of validators before Final status.

7c · named coordination lead 15 / 20

Stellar Development Foundation is the named single foundation coordinating the protocol, with a published team page, a published roadmap, and a CAP/SEP process run on a public GitHub repository with a documented status taxonomy (Draft → Awaiting Decision → Final Comment Period → Accepted → Implemented → Final). The PQC effort has named leads with a published mandate: Nicolas Barry authored the Quantum Preparedness Plan (2026-06-09) and is listed as Consulted on CAP-0087, and Jay Geng is CAP-0087's owner and author and previously authored CAP-0059, CAP-0074 and CAP-0075, the cryptographic host-function CAPs now live on MainNet. No chartered PQC working group was identified in the public record, and the SDF team page renders no job titles, so no individual's role or title is asserted here beyond the CAP and blog authorship on the public record.

7d · adversarial coordination precedent 7 / 20

No cryptographic emergency precedent. The closest coordinated precedent for removing a live protocol behaviour is CAP-0026 'Disable Inflation Mechanism' (Final, Protocol 12, created 2019-07-10), which retired an economically significant mechanism through the ordinary validator-ratified CAP path. There is no precedent of coordinating a cryptographic primitive change under an active attacker. A 2017 consensus-disruption precedent is sometimes cited but is not corroborable from a primary source, so it is not carried.

7e · canary tripwire mechanism 0 / 20

None. No community honeypot, rate-limited spending rule, cryptographic tripwire embedded in SCP, or automated response is declared. The Quantum Preparedness Plan's only stated trigger for the Stage 3 Ed25519 cut-off ledger is qualitative: activation will be determined by quantum computing progress and ecosystem readiness. No numeric threshold, logical-qubit benchmark or calendar tripwire is published.

Source-disagreement disclosure

v3.1 requires every chain card to publish material divergences among authoritative sources, plus the delta-QRI under alternative weighting.

Two tiers of shipped PQC

The Foundation's protocol-level PQC is entirely announced or Draft (roadmap 2026-06-09; CAP-0087 with Implementation TBD; zero merged code; 0% mainnet traffic), while a genuinely shipped but third-party, unaudited, application-layer Falcon-512 verifier contract exists on MainNet with one recorded verification call. Any statement that PQC is live on Stellar conflates these tiers. SDF's own roadmap describes every stage in the future tense, and CAP-0087 states in its Motivation that it does not change the network's Ed25519 transaction signature scheme.

Press corroboration does not extend to the live-cryptography claim

Independent press coverage dated 2026-06-09 does not contain an explicit statement that no quantum-safe cryptography is currently live on Stellar's main network; on a full-text fetch on 2026-08-20 no such sentence appears. What the coverage does corroborate is the 2026-06-09 publication date, the three-stage structure, the 2026 and 2027 stage targets, the dormant-account freezing problem, and that every stage is described in the future tense. The 0% mainnet PQC finding rests on direct on-chain and code evidence, not on press attestation.

Status of the third-party Falcon-512 vendor

The vendor's own website, fetched 2026-08-20, states the project is winding down, is no longer being developed or maintained, and that all services are now offline. No cessation date is given on that page; a community comment in the Stellar protocol discussion dates the cessation to 2026-06-18, which LayerQu could not confirm from a primary source. The public repository is not archived and received two build-fix commits on 2026-08-11 plus a push on 2026-08-19. LayerQu treats the MainNet verifier contract as live but unmaintained and unaudited, and no longer counts the vendor as an active PQC supply-chain participant.

Falcon-512 versus FN-DSA standardization status

The third-party contract implements the NIST Round-3 Falcon-512 submission (Falcon specification v1.2 Table 3.3: target NIST Level I, ring degree 512, 897-byte public key, 666-byte signature), and its own documentation states it is not FN-DSA / FIPS 206 conformant because FIPS 206 changes the message-hashing preamble. No FIPS 206 standard is published, and the Quantum Preparedness Plan itself lists FN-DSA/Falcon as a scheme to be added once standards are finalized. NIST-selected and finalized-FIPS status must not be conflated for any Falcon claim on Stellar.

Third-party testnet contracts versus Stage 2

PQ-authorized Soroban contracts exist on TestNet: a Falcon-512 smart-account transfer through __check_auth with a 666-byte signature on 2026-05-05, and a community custom account authorized solely by guest-side ML-DSA-65 whose authorizing transaction landed 2026-08-19 in TestNet ledger 4,219,543. In both cases the transaction envelope is still Ed25519-signed as Protocol 27 requires. LayerQu does not count third-party contract deployments as 'Testnet PQC active' for Stage 2, which requires the protocol's own PQC (here, the CAP-0087 host functions) to be active on testnet; a reader applying a looser reading would place Stellar at Stage 2 without any change in QRI.

Stellar Community Fund funding is not stated for the third-party PQ work

On a check of the current README, the audit-pack README, and every historical revision of the README on 2026-08-20, the third-party vendor's repository carries no statement that its Stellar post-quantum work is funded under the Stellar Community Fund. The only Stellar Community Fund reference anywhere in that repository is to an SCF Soroban Security Audit Bank engagement described as being prepared or scheduled, with the code stated to be unaudited.

Vendor tile coverage is a tested-absence for wallets and an untested gap for bridges and custodians

The wallet tile absence is a positive search result: authenticated code search for 'quantum' returns zero hits in the SDF-maintained browser-extension repository, the TypeScript wallet SDK and the JavaScript SDK, each with an ed25519 positive control confirming the index is live. The bridge and custodian tiles are different: no bridge-specific or custodian-specific Stellar PQC statement was located, but no dedicated sweep of those venues was completed, so those two tiles record an untested gap rather than a confirmed vendor absence. No custodian names, assets-under-custody figures or bank-charter dates are carried on this card, because none was corroborated against a primary source.

Tier-1 validator roster

SDF's live quorum set, read from the public network monitor on 2026-08-20, contains 21 validators across 7 organizations at threshold 5: SDF, Blockdaemon, OBSRVR, Franklin Templeton, LOBSTR, Creit Technologies and Public Node, three nodes each. SatoshiPay does not appear in the live quorum set or among current full validators. This roster is used throughout the card.

Live network counts drift between observations

The public network monitor returned 406 known nodes, 216 active, 94 validating, 70 full validators and 14 distinct organizations among full validators on 2026-08-20; a reading two days earlier recorded 71 full validators across 15 organizations. These counts move continuously and should be read as an observation with a timestamp, not a fixed property of the network. The ledger-version split among validating nodes was 56 on Protocol 27 and 38 on Protocol-28-capable software on both readings.

Delta-QRI under alternative weighting

Under an architecture-forward alternative weighting that swaps the L1 Dim 4 and Dim 5 weights (Dim 4 at 22%, Dim 5 at 10%), raw QRI = 28.5, still Band 3 Planning: the plan-versus-shipped gap, not the weighting, is the binding constraint.

Announcement-to-shipped ratio

Announced: 4. Shipped: 0. Ratio: 2.

Tag: >1.5 deduction applied in 5e; shipped = 0 makes the ratio unbounded, recorded at the 2.0 threshold per the n-announced / 0-shipped convention, so the >2.0 QRI cap 65 and the >5.0 narrative-only tag do not apply. Announced counted as distinct forward-dated primitive-level or subsystem-level claims by SDF in the trailing 12 months: ML-DSA-44/65 Soroban host-function verification (Quantum Preparedness Plan Stage 1, 2026 target), ML-DSA-87 added in CAP-0087 (Draft), quantum-safe signer types on classic accounts (Stage 2, 2027 target, primitive unnamed), and a protocol upgrade to SCP for network integrity (Quantum Preparedness Plan, undated, primitive unnamed). Shipped counted on the rubric's strict basis, mainnet bytes signed under the named primitive by the protocol: none. The third-party Falcon-512 contract is not an SDF claim and is not counted on either side. Announcements are future-tense throughout and CAP-0087 states it does not change the network's Ed25519 transaction signature scheme; no narrative-only tag

Peers in the L1 profile

9 chains closest to Stellar by Stage then QRI.

S3 41
S3 46
S2 22
S2 25
S2 25
S2 31
S2 33