Solana's problem is structural and simple: the public key is the address. 100% of accounts fully exposed on first view, no hash wrapper. Project Eleven is testnet, Winternitz Vault is community opt-in, Helius itself says 'wait for efficient PQC schemes'. Nakamoto 31 does not save Ed25519.
Summary
Solana is Band 2 (Acknowledged). Ed25519 + BLS tower BFT are fully quantum-exposed — 100% of accounts have pubkey = address, no hash protection. Project Eleven testnet partnership shows awareness; Winternitz Vault on mainnet is community-only and opt-in. No protocol-level PQC, no hybrid envelope, no published dated roadmap. Helius analysis suggests 'wait for efficient PQC schemes'. Mosca X+Y (15-25y) > Z50 (15y) = danger zone.
What the gates say
- Hybrid: FAIL. No hybrid plan on file.
- Evidence: PASS. Sources reconstructable by third party.
- Primitive naming: PASS. Named primitives at every scored sub-level.
Burn-vs-rescue policy on file
undeclared
Seven dimensions
Each dimension scores 0-100 internally; the weighted roll-up produces the QRI on the left. Open a row to read the sub-score detail.
1 Cryptographic Exposure 38 / 100
Good inventory from v1. BLS usage in tower BFT named by agent context.
Ed25519 (EdDSA over Curve25519) · SHA-256 (Proof of History) · Keccak-256 (programs) · BLS (tower BFT)Community Winternitz Vault is opt-in, not core. Zero families in core.
No NIST PQC category mapped — no PQC scheme in core.
2 HNDL Exposure 22 / 100
100% of Solana accounts have Ed25519 pubkey = address. No hash protection. Full TVL quantum-exposed.
100% exposed (same as active). No distinction between cold/hot.
Tx-once-and-done for most use cases. Lower long-term forgery risk than Bitcoin.
Validator gossip uses TLS (RSA/ECDH). Undeclared PQC migration for RPC.
3 Metadata & Privacy Exposure 32 / 100
Pseudonymous, fully transparent transaction graph.
Helius, QuickNode, Triton dominate RPC. High concentration.
Wormhole, Portal, deBridge all visible. Full correlation.
Low additional retroactive risk — already transparent.
4 Migration Architecture 20 / 100
Fixed Ed25519 at protocol level. Adding new signature types requires SIMD + validator upgrade.
No native AA. PDAs provide program-level flexibility only.
Feature gates + SIMD process. 16 months uptime. History of outages (2022-2023) flags coordination concerns.
Transaction size limit raised to 4,096 bytes (2026) accommodates larger sigs. No hybrid envelope deployed.
5 Deployment Execution 10 / 100
Winternitz Vault deployed on mainnet (community, opt-in, hash-based OTS). Usage <0.1% of tx volume.
No PQC in Agave or Firedancer validator clients.
Moderate — Project Eleven announcements exceed shipped mainnet.
6 Supply Chain Vendor Readiness 8 / 100
Fireblocks announced PQC research only.
7 Governance & Coordination 42 / 100
Nakamoto coefficient 31 — highest among PoS.
Recovered from 2022-2023 outages. Feature gate coordination demonstrated.
Solana Foundation + Anza. No named PQC lead.
Post-FTX recovery demonstrated. No PQC-specific adversarial coordination.
The X + Y vs Z inequality
X (data shelf life): 5-10 (EOA-like, pubkey=address)
Y (migration time): 10-15
Z10 (10% CRQC year): 2036 · Z50 (50%): 2041
Verdict: X+Y > Z (danger).
Four-scenario grid
| Scenario | Value preserved | Privacy preserved |
|---|---|---|
| quantum never | 100% | 100% |
| arrives suddenly pre migration | 5% | 10% |
| arrives slowly post migration | 85% | 75% |
| arrives slowly mid migration | 40% | 40% |
Peers in the L1 profile
Order-book view of the 9 chains closest to Solana by QRI.
Public artifacts used for this scorecard
Each entry below is a sub-score citation. Clicking the link takes you to the public source. A third party should be able to reconstruct every number on this page from these URLs in 48 hours.
Good inventory from v1. BLS usage in tower BFT named by agent context.
100% of Solana accounts have Ed25519 pubkey = address. No hash protection. Full TVL quantum-exposed.
Helius, QuickNode, Triton dominate RPC. High concentration.
Fixed Ed25519 at protocol level. Adding new signature types requires SIMD + validator upgrade.
Winternitz Vault deployed on mainnet (community, opt-in, hash-based OTS). Usage <0.1% of tx volume.
Nakamoto coefficient 31 — highest among PoS.
Supply chain snapshot
A chain's supply chain cannot migrate faster than its slowest dependency. Zero PQC roadmaps in any of the four categories is a structural blocker, not a lagging indicator.
Analyst notes on the scoring
Ed25519 exposure on Solana is structurally worst-case: pubkey=address with no hash wrapper. Post-FTX uptime recovery is the strongest governance signal. Migration stage capped at 2 due to zero published dated milestones with verifiable outcomes.
Scorecard metadata
- Profile: L1
- Scored: 2026-04-18 by
layerqu-v2-scoring-agent-4 - v1 reference:
chainscreen-v1-archive - QRI raw: 20 · after caps: 20
- Confidence interval: ±10
- PQC washing ratio: 1.2x
- Burn-vs-rescue: undeclared
Caps triggered
- Mosca (5a<20% → QRI max 60)
- Sutor (5d count=1 but named — Migration Stage max 2)
- Casado (4+ tiles pqc=0 → migration_stage max 3)
- Hybrid gate FAIL → QRI cap 60