{ "chain_slug": "bitcoin", "name": "Bitcoin", "scorecard_profile": "L1", "evaluated_at": "2026-04-18", "evaluator": "layerqu-v2-scoring-agent-1", "v1_reference": "chainscreen-v1-archive", "dimensions": { "1_cryptographic_exposure": { "weight": 0.15, "score": 45, "sub_scores": { "1a_primitive_inventory": { "score": 15, "primitives_named": [ "ECDSA secp256k1 (legacy/SegWit tx sigs)", "Schnorr secp256k1 (Taproot)", "SHA-256d (block headers, Merkle)", "RIPEMD-160 (P2PKH/P2WPKH address hash)", "CRYSTALS-Dilithium (BIP-360 P2MR testnet only)" ], "evidence": [ "https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf", "https://bip360.org/", "https://chaincode.com/bitcoin-post-quantum.pdf" ], "note": "Very complete primitive inventory. BIP-360 names Dilithium explicitly." }, "1b_shor_grover_pq_tag": { "score": 16, "tags": { "ECDSA secp256k1": "Shor-break", "Schnorr secp256k1": "Shor-break", "SHA-256d": "Grover-weaken-128bit", "RIPEMD-160": "Grover-weaken-80bit (still computationally infeasible classically)", "CRYSTALS-Dilithium": "PQ-safe (NIST Category 2/3/5 per variant)" }, "evidence": [ "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-advances-toward-quantum-resistance" ] }, "1c_algorithm_family_diversity": { "score": 2, "families_represented": 0, "families": [], "note": "BIP-360 Dilithium (lattice) proposed; not on mainnet. Currently no PQC families deployed." }, "1d_nist_security_category": { "score": 6, "mappings": { "CRYSTALS-Dilithium-3 (BIP-360 proposed)": "NIST Category 3" }, "evidence": [ "https://bip360.org/" ], "note": "Testnet-only NIST mapping" }, "1e_implementation_quality": { "score": 6, "formal_verification": "Bitcoin Core partially specified; BTQ Dilithium testnet not Bitcoin Core", "constant_time": "libsecp256k1 standard", "libraries": [ "libsecp256k1", "secp256k1-zkp", "BTQ dilithium-pq-cryptography" ], "evidence": [ "https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin" ] } }, "total_artifacts": 5 }, "2_hndl_exposure": { "weight": 0.1, "score": 45, "sub_scores": { "2a_active_key_exposure": { "score": 10, "note": "P2TR key-path (Taproot) exposes pubkeys in witness output. P2PKH hides pubkey until first spend. Reused addresses exposed. Mix of ~25-40% exposed." }, "2b_cold_key_exposure": { "score": 15, "note": "Satoshi's ~1M BTC in P2PK outputs have pubkeys exposed on-chain since 2009-2010. Lost coins (1-2M BTC, 6-10% supply) retain exposure. ETF holdings ~7% of supply." }, "2c_signature_longterm_validity": { "score": 10, "note": "X=infinite for Bitcoin — historical signatures retain validity indefinitely. Key difference from account-based chains." }, "2d_encryption_confidentiality": { "score": 10, "note": "P2P node communication uses standard TLS, BIP-324 (v2 transport) adds ChaCha20-Poly1305. BIP-324 is PQ-asymmetric-safe for authentication but key exchange still ECDH." } }, "total_artifacts": 4 }, "3_metadata_privacy_exposure": { "weight": 0.13, "score": 30, "sub_scores": { "3a_tx_graph_visibility": { "score": 6, "note": "UTXO pseudonymous. CoinJoin / Wasabi / Samourai provide some mixing." }, "3b_rpc_mempool_concentration": { "score": 8, "note": "Self-hosted nodes common; miners via pools (Foundry 31.6%, AntPool 16.7%, ViaBTC 13.7%)." }, "3c_cross_chain_bridge_correlation": { "score": 8, "note": "WBTC via BitGo custody; tBTC decentralized; Lightning Network off-chain." }, "3d_retroactive_deanon_risk": { "score": 8, "note": "ECDSA broken: historical unspent P2PK outputs expose pubkeys; P2PKH signatures revealed on spend also Shor-broken. Lopp's position: burn exposed coins." } }, "total_artifacts": 3 }, "4_migration_architecture": { "weight": 0.1, "score": 38, "sub_scores": { "4a_crypto_agility": { "score": 10, "note": "Taproot's MAST allows scripted spending conditions. BIP-360 proposes new output type (P2MR SegWit v2)." }, "4b_account_abstraction_key_rotation": { "score": 5, "note": "No AA. Fixed UTXO script model. Users must manually migrate UTXOs to new address type." }, "4c_hard_fork_track_record": { "score": 12, "note": "Soft forks only. SegWit 2017, Taproot 2021. Conservative but successful. Historical avg time proposal-to-activation ~4 years." }, "4d_hybrid_deployment_readiness": { "score": 11, "note": "BIP-360 is hybrid by design — new output type alongside existing P2PKH/P2WPKH/P2TR. Old UTXOs remain classical; new UTXOs use Dilithium. Testnet only." } }, "total_artifacts": 4 }, "5_deployment_execution": { "weight": 0.22, "score": 15, "sub_scores": { "5a_mainnet_pqc_pct": { "score": 0, "mainnet_pqc_pct": 0, "evidence": [], "note": "no mainnet PQC traffic" }, "5b_pqc_code_in_client": { "score": 4, "note": "BTQ Bitcoin Quantum testnet v0.3.0 has Dilithium opcodes — external implementation, not Bitcoin Core. 50+ miners, 100K+ blocks on testnet." }, "5c_validator_pqc_adoption": { "score": 0, "note": "PoW — no validator set. Miners use SHA-256 unchanged." }, "5d_published_milestones_count": { "score": 6, "count": 2, "note": "BIP-360 draft spec + BTQ testnet v0.3.0 deployment are named milestones. No dated Core activation." }, "5e_pqc_washing_delta": { "score": 5, "ratio": 1.2, "note": "BTQ shipped testnet code; Bitcoin Core has not adopted. Modest overhang." } }, "total_artifacts": 3 }, "6_supply_chain_vendor_readiness": { "weight": 0.22, "score": 15, "sub_scores": { "6a_wallet": { "score": 5, "top3": [ "Sparrow", "Electrum", "Ledger HW" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 1, "evidence": [ "Ledger researching PQC firmware publicly" ] }, "6b_bridge": { "score": 2, "top3": [ "WBTC (BitGo)", "tBTC", "Lightning" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0, "evidence": [] }, "6c_custodian": { "score": 5, "top3": [ "Coinbase Custody", "BitGo", "Fidelity Digital" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 1, "evidence": [ "Fireblocks has announced PQC research (research-only)" ] }, "6d_rpc_hsm": { "score": 3, "top3": [ "self-hosted nodes", "Blockstream.info", "mempool.space" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0, "evidence": [] } }, "total_artifacts": 3 }, "7_governance_coordination": { "weight": 0.08, "score": 55, "sub_scores": { "7a_validator_stake_distribution": { "score": 8, "note": "Mining: Foundry 31.6%, AntPool 16.7%, ViaBTC 13.7%. NC=3. Nodes: ~20K+ reachable." }, "7b_upgrade_cadence_under_pressure": { "score": 15, "note": "Taproot 2021, SegWit 2017. Slow but completed. Conservative process." }, "7c_named_coordination_lead": { "score": 15, "note": "No formal foundation but rough-consensus model via Bitcoin Core maintainers (Wladimir van der Laan, etc.)." }, "7d_adversarial_coordination_precedent": { "score": 17, "note": "Block size wars 2015-2017 demonstrated adversarial-pressure coordination capability, culminating in UASF and SegWit activation. Model for quantum migration." } }, "total_artifacts": 4 } }, "gates": { "hybrid_deployment": "PASS", "evidence_reconstruction": "PASS", "primitive_naming": "PASS" }, "caps_applied": [ "mosca_cap_60 (5a=0)", "sutor_stage_cap_2 (5d count=2, under 3)", "casado_stage_cap_3" ], "qri": { "raw": 28, "after_caps": 28, "ci_plus_minus": 5, "band": 3, "band_name": "Planning" }, "migration_stage": 1, "mosca_inequality": { "X_signature_shelf_life_years": "100+ (historical UTXO signatures unspendable but pubkey-exposed permanently; Satoshi 1M BTC P2PK is the headline case)", "Y_migration_time_years_range": "7-12 (Lopp estimates 5-10 years from Core acceptance; Core acceptance not secured)", "Z_10pct_year": 2036, "Z_50pct_year": 2041, "danger_zone_at_50pct": true }, "four_scenario_grid": { "quantum_never": { "value_preserved_pct": 100, "privacy_preserved_pct": 100 }, "arrives_suddenly_pre_migration": { "value_preserved_pct": 25, "privacy_preserved_pct": 20 }, "arrives_slowly_post_migration": { "value_preserved_pct": 90, "privacy_preserved_pct": 80 }, "arrives_slowly_mid_migration": { "value_preserved_pct": 55, "privacy_preserved_pct": 45 } }, "burn_vs_rescue_policy": "burn (Lopp BIP-361 position preferred by a faction; not formally adopted). Satoshi coins are de facto burned via non-movement.", "pqc_washing_ratio": 1.2, "vendor_tile_summary": { "wallet": { "top3": [ "Sparrow", "Electrum", "Ledger HW" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 1 }, "bridge": { "top3": [ "WBTC", "tBTC", "Lightning" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0 }, "custodian": { "top3": [ "Coinbase Custody", "BitGo", "Fidelity Digital" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 1 }, "rpc_hsm": { "top3": [ "self-hosted", "Blockstream.info", "mempool.space" ], "pqc_roadmap_count": 0 } }, "narrative_summary": "Bitcoin has the most concrete architectural quantum proposal (BIP-360 + BTQ Bitcoin Quantum testnet with CRYSTALS-Dilithium) but lowest governance velocity in batch. X=infinite (historical UTXO signatures vulnerable to Shor-forged spends of exposed-pubkey UTXOs like Satoshi's 1M BTC). Lopp's burn-vs-rescue framing active. Migration Stage 1: BIP-360 spec exists, external testnet functional, no Core adoption.", "evaluator_notes": "Highest artifact density of any chain in batch (5 in Dim 1, 4 in Dim 7). Sutor cap binds (only 2 dated milestones). Taproot's 4-year activation cycle suggests quantum migration would exceed Y=10 estimate. Band 3 Planning justified by concrete spec despite slow pace.", "narrative_voiced": "Bitcoin has the most concrete quantum spec on this list, BIP-360, a working testnet with CRYSTALS-Dilithium, and Satoshi's one million BTC sitting in P2PK outputs with the public keys visible since 2009. Rescue or burn is the actual argument. Everything else is bikeshedding." }